Small national park gateway towns — not major cities — are the destinations most at risk of being overwhelmed by summer crowds, according to a new study from Canada Sports Betting, which ranked 50 U.S. destinations by their likelihood of overcrowding this June, July, and August.
The study scored each destination across four measures: peak tourist-to-resident ratio, year-over-year visitor growth, forward search demand for summer 2026, and short-term rental density. Each composite score was then converted into an implied overcrowding probability.
West Yellowstone, Montana, took the top spot. The town of 1,300 permanent residents stages the 4.86 million annual visitors to Yellowstone National Park, roughly half of whom arrive in summer — producing a peak ratio of 1,944 tourists per resident, the highest in the study. Gatlinburg, Tennessee, the gateway to Great Smoky Mountains National Park, ranked second at 1,510 tourists per resident. Notably, Gatlinburg’s short-term rental penetration sits at 107.7 percent, meaning Airbnb-style listings there exceed the town’s entire housing stock.
The full top 10, per Canada Sports Betting:
- West Yellowstone, MT — 1,944:1 peak ratio; 75 percent overcrowding probability
- Gatlinburg, TN — 1,510:1; 61 percent
- Leavenworth, WA — 496:1; 45 percent; 76.2 percent of housing listed on short-term rental platforms, the highest in the study
- Asheville, NC — 21:1; 36 percent; the fastest-growing major destination in the top 10 at 5.6 percent year over year
- St. Augustine, FL — 177:1; 35 percent
- Provincetown, MA — 200:1; 35 percent; 1.2 million annual visitors funneled through a peninsula with a single road in
- Park City, UT — 200:1; 34 percent
- Orlando, FL — 89:1; 34 percent; its 75.3 million annual visitors are the highest absolute volume in the study
- Austin, TX — 12:1; 33 percent; growing 5.8 percent year over year, the fastest rate in the top 10
- Jackson Hole, WY — 191:1; 33 percent; a resident survey found 85 percent of locals believe tourism is growing too fast
Five of the top 10 are mountain or national park gateway destinations, where constrained geography leaves no overflow valve. Six have formal visitor management measures, documented resident protests, or both. Asheville and Austin stand out as the study’s fastest growers, and neither has a formal visitor management plan in place.
“These communities aren’t struggling with tourism. They’re being replaced by it,” a Canada Sports Betting data analyst said of the small gateway towns leading the ranking.
For travel advisors, the study offers a practical rule of thumb for steering summer clients: every destination above rank six carries a peak ratio above 100:1, meaning clients will encounter at least 100 fellow visitors for every local they see. The study also flagged a widening gap between destinations with management controls, which are stabilizing, and those without, which are accelerating.
The study drew on National Park Service visitation statistics, U.S. Census Bureau population estimates, convention and visitor bureau reports, Inside Airbnb data, and Google Trends search demand. Canada Sports Betting noted that peak-season figures were confirmed from primary data for only five destinations—Yellowstone, Gatlinburg, Myrtle Beach, Orlando, and Bar Harbor—with the remainder derived estimates.
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