The global travel and tourism industry is on track to attract $12.5 trillion in capital investment across G20 economies through 2035, but a near-term mismatch between spending and demand could create serious capacity pressures for agents and travelers alike, according to a report released Wednesday by the World Travel & Tourism Council.
The report, “Bridging the Gap: Travel & Tourism Capital Investment and Demand Growth Across the G20,” was unveiled at ITB Berlin and produced in partnership with Oxford Economics. It projects travel demand across the G20 and Spain will grow at 3.3% annually over the next decade, while capital investment will climb at a faster 4.6% clip.
The catch: Investment recovery is lagging demand in the near term, creating a temporary — but consequential — divergence. WTTC warns that gap could translate into capacity constraints and localized overcrowding, placing stress on existing tourism infrastructure at destinations that are already struggling to manage visitor volume.
The dynamics are expected to shift around 2033, when investment growth is projected to pull ahead of demand.
Germany and Spain are identified as standout “strategic modernizers” — nations investing well ahead of anticipated need. Germany has committed $543 billion through 2035, with an investment-to-demand growth ratio of 1.39. Spain will pour $349 billion into its tourism infrastructure over the same period, investing at a rate 1.46 times faster than demand growth.
“Travel and tourism is entering a new decisive decade for infrastructure and competitiveness,” said WTTC President and CEO Gloria Guevara in a statement. “Countries that align investment with future demand are strengthening their economic resilience and securing long-term growth.”
Guevara called for sustained collaboration between governments and the private sector to keep investment aligned with long-term demand trends, citing transport connectivity and sustainability upgrades as priorities.
For travel advisors, the report signals both opportunity and risk. Destinations investing aggressively — like Germany and Spain — are likely to emerge from the decade with upgraded infrastructure and improved capacity, potentially boosting their appeal to clients. In the near term, however, agents booking popular G20 destinations may need to prepare clients for congestion at airports, hotels and attractions as supply struggles to keep pace with surging post-pandemic travel appetite.
The full report is available through WTTC’s Research Hub at researchhub.wttc.org.
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