International travel demand for the first half of 2026 is expected to show modest overall growth, with Asian destinations emerging as the primary drivers of global inspirational travel intent, according to a new analysis from Mabrian, the global travel intelligence and tourism advisory partner, part of The Data Appeal Company.
Besides considering international air capacity, Mabrian analysis tracks global flight search behavior to the top 50 airports in each world region, focusing exclusively on international demand between January and June 2026. Covering 86.7 percent of global travel demand, the study focuses on the market share of each world region over total flight searches. This methodology provides a standardized approach to comparing the evolution of travel intent across regions.
Supported by an overall increase of international air capacity of +5.9 percent in the next semester compared to last year, international inspirational travel demand shows a slight year-on-year increase for the first half of 2026, although growth patterns in travel intent vary significantly by region, according to Mabrian.
As in 2025, Asia’s performance confirms its role as the core engine of international travel inspiration, supported by both established and emerging destinations. This continent leads global demand growth, with Eastern Asia and Southeast Asia together accounting for 31.7 percent of the international travel demand market share worldwide. Eastern Asia, including destinations such as Japan, South Korea, and China, represents 16.3 percent of international inspirational demand during the first six months of 2026, with Japan as the primary driver. Notably, Japan maintains robust growth, with demand increasingly expanding beyond traditional gateways to cities such as Fukuoka and Sapporo.
Southeast Asia accounts for 15.4 percent of global inspirational demand, led by Vietnam, which continues its strong upward trajectory, consolidating its position as a global bucket-list destination, alongside Indonesia, the Philippines, and Cambodia.
GCC Destinations
Western Asia strengthens its relative position in early 2026, gaining market share among world demand: it captures 8.9 percent of total international inspirational demand during the first half of this year and outperforms the same period in 2025. Notably, the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries will increase international air capacity by +3.6 percent in the next six months, compared to the same period last year.
The region is showing the strongest upward trend in relative market share, with Jeddah and Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), as well as Doha (Qatar), among the top 10 destinations growing in travel intent globally, along with Jakarta (Indonesia), Hanoi (Vietnam), Ho Chi Min (Vietnam), Seoul (South Korea), Moscow (Russian Federation), Manila (The Philippines), and Tokyo (Japan).
“While traditionally popular regions continue to capture the largest share of global travel demand, we are seeing that lesser-known and alternative destinations are expanding their market share,” said Carlos Cendra, director of marketing and communications at Mabrian. This evolution is driven by the demand growth from emerging inbound markets and more appealing value for money, signalling that inspirational demand is diversifying like never before.”
Regions where some of the world’s most visited destinations are located, such as Southern Europe and North America, show a minor downward trend in international travel intent for the first six months of 2026; and similar declines are observed in Southern Asia and Northern Europe. “The performance of these regions should be analyzed considering that the travel intent refers to the first half of 2026, which covers the shoulder and early summer seasons but does not include the highest peak of the summer season that typically drives demand in these regions,” Cendra clarified.
The Caribbean: Regional Instability Effect in Travel Demand
Despite the promising forecast for this first half of 2026, instability in key subregions should be monitored. The effects of the tensions in the Caribbean region in early January should be monitored in the medium and long term as data indicates that “international travel intent toward the Caribbean shows a global softening, particularly among U.S. and European markets,” according to Mabrian spokesperson. The Share of Searches Index based on the flight searches from the first half of January 2026 to travel from January to March 2026, show a slight decline in global market share for the Caribbean in February and March.
The contraction is more pronounced in the U.S. market between January and March 2026, where the Caribbean loses market share of outbound travel demand, falling from 9.1 percent to 7.6 percent year over year, with the sharpest decline in January and an unstable recovery thereafter. This weakening is mainly driven by reduced demand for the Mexican Caribbean, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Aruba, and the Colombian Caribbean. Similarly, European markets show a moderate decline in February, followed by a partial recovery that remains below last year’s levels.
“The resilience of Caribbean destinations will be key to rapidly regaining market confidence, especially if conditions in the area stabilize in the short term. To do so is key for destinations to monitor source market perception and adapt their strategies,” the Mabrian expert pointed out.
Interestingly, despite the recent protests and unrest in Iran, global travel intent toward Western Asia and GCC destinations remains stable in the first quarter of 2026. A slight dip in market share in February is followed by a rebound in March that marginally exceeds last year’s levels, highlighting the resilience of the region’s demand. As Cendra pointed out, this performance underscores “the critical role that a strong destination reputation plays in cushioning the impact of unforeseen events on travel demand.”
“In today’s rapidly evolving social and economic context, data-driven travel intelligence enables destinations and DMOs to anticipate demand shifts, respond to volatility, and reinforce evidence-based strategic decision-making,” added Mirko Lalli, CEO of The Data Appeal Company.
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