Americans appear to be scaling back their fall travel plans this year as worries over the federal government shutdown ripple across the tourism industry, according to new data from revenue management platform PriceLabs.
The company’s analysis shows that fewer travelers are taking trips this fall, with anxiety over TSA staffing shortages contributing to slower bookings throughout September and into peak leaf-peeping season. The trend could continue into the final months of 2025.
Soft Start to the Season
As of early October, only a few popular foliage destinations are pacing ahead of last year in occupancy. Asheville, North Carolina, leads the way with a 10% year-over-year gain, followed by Acadia National Park, Maine (+8%), Aspen, Colorado (+3%), and Shenandoah National Park, Virginia (+1%).
Meanwhile, other traditionally busy fall markets are seeing sharp slowdowns, including Oregon’s McKenzie River Scenic Byway (-8%), Stowe, Vermont (-7%), and the Berkshires in Massachusetts (-6%).
In absolute terms, Acadia National Park currently leads with a 71% occupancy rate, followed by the Great Smoky Mountains at 63%—both driven by strong drive-to demand and steady regional tourism.
Shutdown Jitters Hit September Hard
September occupancy rates across the country fell 6.1% year-over-year, with only Mississippi posting an increase (+1.4%). The steepest drops occurred in Delaware and Washington, D.C. (each down more than 20%), followed by Maryland (-14.2%) and Louisiana (-13.1%).
These urban and coastal markets often rely on event or conference-related travel, segments particularly sensitive to uncertainty surrounding federal operations. In contrast, drive-to destinations continue to hold stronger, as travelers appear less eager to navigate airport disruptions.
Outlook Cautious but Improving
Nationwide, October occupancy is pacing 13.1% below last year, with North Carolina the lone state in positive territory (+2.3%). November bookings remain subdued at -9.4% but could receive a late boost from Thanksgiving travel.
December is showing early promise, with occupancy already trending above 2024 levels in 10 states, led by Tennessee (+10.7%), Hawaii (+10.3%), and Colorado (+9.35%).
“Even with a softer start to fall travel, there are still bright spots,” said Richie Khandelwal, president and co-founder of PriceLabs. “Many drive-to destinations are seeing steady demand, suggesting travelers are seeking convenience and comfort closer to home. It’s a good reminder that memorable trips don’t always require a flight.”
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